{"id":671,"date":"2019-06-28T06:14:18","date_gmt":"2019-06-28T11:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.paenergyratings.com\/blog\/?p=671"},"modified":"2021-07-12T11:53:40","modified_gmt":"2021-07-12T16:53:40","slug":"hurricanes-el-nino-pennsylvania-electric-bills","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.paenergyratings.com\/blog\/hurricanes-el-nino-pennsylvania-electric-bills\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurricanes, El Ni\u00f1o, and Your Pennsylvania Electric Bills"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Even Pennsylvania\u2019s cities and towns that are nestled in steep-sloped river valleys are not immune to hurricanes. Learn what to expect this summer and how it might affect your future electricity bills. <\/em><\/center><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Are Your Pennsylvania Electricity Rates Hurricane-Ready?<\/h2>\n

This year’s hurricane season is already underway and it’s not to be taken lightly. Extreme summer weather is causing more and more disruptions to our lives. Powerful storms can force companies in the Gulf of Mexico to evacuate drilling rigs, which often send shockwaves through the oil market, spiking the price of natural gas. Storm surges can shut down coastal power plants, electric switching stations, and natural gas pipelines. Philadelphia faces a growing problem of tidal flooding<\/a> that would be compounded by storm surge. Even inland cities and towns nestled in steep-sloped river valleys can be inundated by torrential rains. High winds and tornados snap power lines, plunging whole regions into the dark for days. Nightmarish storms, like Hurricane Sandy, Katrina, and Harvey, not only submerged entire metropolitan areas but impacted\u00a0energy reliability and raising prices<\/a>\u00a0for months afterwards.<\/p>\n

Because of the combination of growing storm intensity and high regional demands for energy, tropical cyclones now tend to cause wider-felt market disruptions. These in turn can cause energy shortages and increase Pennsylvania electric rates<\/a> that may linger for months.<\/p>\n

PA Hurricane Season 2019 Predictions<\/h3>\n

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Unlike last year’s “above normal activity forecast<\/a>“, 2019 is predicted to be a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nNOAA
\nPrediction<\/strong><\/td>\n		CSU
\nPrediction<\/strong><\/td>\n		Weather Co.
\nPrediction<\/strong><\/td>\n		TSR
\nPrediction<\/strong><\/td>\n		Seasonal Average
\n1981-2010<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Number of named storms
\n(winds 39 mph+)<\/td>\n		9-15<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Storms becoming hurricanes
\n(winds 74 mph+)<\/td>\n		4-8<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Major hurricanes
\n(Cat. 3, 4 or 5, winds 111 mph+)<\/td>\n		2-4<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

A Certain Amount of Uncertainty<\/h3>\n

All of these forecasts come with a certain amount of…er, uncertainty. For example, NOAA’s prediction comes with a 70% probability. The remaining 30% is uncertainty due to the effects from several factors that either help or hinder tropical cyclone formation. So with that in mind, let’s quickly review the conditions that spawn hurricanes:<\/p>\n