Are the Super El Niño Savings on PA Heating Bills True?

How Much Will Your PA Heating Bill Cost This Winter?

This year, PA consumers have been coping with rising costs for food and gasoline. And now, a very strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer than average winter for much of the U.S. That's great news for Pennsylvania where El Niños historically tend to bring warmer than average winter weather. But, El Niños can also destabilize the Polar Vortex and cause short lived but bitter cold snaps that can briefly drive up heating use. Even the very strong El Niño during the winter of 2015-2016 saw multiple instances of blizzards, ice storms, and frigid below-zero wind chills. Some severe winter storms paralyzed the northeast for several days. So, even if you have a great rate from the best electric supplier, an El Niño winter can spike your monthly electric use and may even cost you more.

For families struggling with affordability, getting a better understanding about home heating costs before the first snow flakes fly will go a long way to help them make better choices. In order to help consumers prepare for these costs, we've gathered up heating costs for each state and broken them out into the four primary heating fuels.

Comparing Heating Usage Data

For this update we took monthly consumption data from the EIA 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). This is largely because the most recent EIA's 2024 RECS data will not be available until after the new year. And with the heating season not quite yet begun and some heating fuel prices surging, we wanted consumers to get this information as soon as possible.

Heating usage data from the 2020 RECS, however, remains relevant to this coming winter. Home heating consumption depends on two main things: first is how cold is it outside and, second, how long must you run your heater to warm your home. While there was no El Niño, the 2019-2020 winter was notably mild so that homes needed less heat during those months.

When it comes to El Niño winter in PA, however, how much heat you'll use gets complicated. Recent winters have been warmer than average but punctuated by severe cold blasts, both of which may be linked to climate change. This year's "Super" El Niño may also stretch or destabilize the Polar Vortex from its place over the north pole. As mentioned earlier, while the very strong 2015-2016 El Niño was a warmer than normal winter, there were plenty of instances when harsh winter weather broke through. As a result, your total heating use through winter will likely be less. But starting in late December into early January, PA residents could see periodic waves of bitter cold briefly drive up their need for heating.

Natural Gas Prices During El Niño

Some thirty mostly-northern states mainly rely on natural gas for winter heating. Natural gas also fuels nearly half of the electric generators throughout the country. This fact is key because winter heating demand for natural gas plays an important role in determining how high electricity costs may go at the start of spring.

Due to El Niño's weather effects, the EIA expects homes in the midwest, south, and northeast that use natural gas and propane as their main source of space heating to spend 10 to 15% less on average than last winter. Homes on the west coast, however, could spend 7% more.

EIA also forecasts homes that use electricity as the main heating source will spend slightly more this winter owing to higher wholesale prices. And as PA electricity consumers are doubtlessly aware, wholesale prices in the PJM area are rising and may hit the 41% increase mark by the end of 2026.

Presently, natural gas prices are lower due to high inventories of stored gas as well as high production numbers. Factor in a good potential for low-heating demand and it is possible that natural gas supplies could still be higher than average at the traditional end of the heating season in late March.

For deregulated energy states like Pennsylvania where consumers have their choice of power providers, this is good news for electric bills in 2027. That's because electricity prices may likely be lower, albeit for a brief time, before the AC season fires up. This makes springtime a great time to shop for cheap electricity plans for your home or business.

How Do PA Heating Costs Compare?

According to energy consumption data from the 2020 RECS, just 26% of PA homes use electricity for heating. An average cost per month is about $104.52. Natural gas, meanwhile, is the preferred fuel, heating over half the state's homes. However, the average cost per month is much higher; roughly $234.51.

Propane heats 6% of homes ($150.12 per month), while twice that, 13%, use fuel oil (the most expensive at $313.37 per month).

So, with almost half of the state using natural gas, the weighted average monthly heating cost runs about $198.86

And, with the state normally seeing 7 months with heating degree days, an average winter heating cost can run up to $1,400.00.

One point that's important to bear in mind here is that RECS data does not differentiate between the specific fuel costs for high efficiency types of heating systems vs standard models or their ages. It just looks at the average heating fuel consumption for each type of system. Homes with newer high-efficiency heating systems can expect lower costs.

All the same, however, the data confirms that electricity has the lowest monthly cost for heating.

How Do PA Heating Costs Rank with Other States?

When it comes to winter heating costs, location is everything.

Pennsylvania ranks 10 for the highest average winter heating cost. Part of this is due to the fact that PA is situated where cold weather systems blow eastward from western Canada and the Plains States. These can sometimes collide with warmer, wetter weather systems moving up the east coast and cause ice storms or dump 1-2 feet of snow onto the region. Similarly, cities in western PA are often hit by lake-effect snow storms.

However, energy demand plays a significant role in terms of cost for both electricity and natural gas. The state is ranked 5th most populous in the nation and has been wrestling with tight energy supplies and rising energy prices on the PJM grid.

In contrast, first place Hawaii and second place Florida have the lowest average winter heating costs. This is partly because only a fraction of homes bother to have heating systems installed. In fact, while Hawaii has the highest monthly electric rates in the U.S. (48 cents per kWh), monthly heating costs in a home that actually has heat averages about $9.84.

Which Heating Fuel Costs More?

While doubling fuel oil prices have grabbed headlines, only four states rely on that as the main heating fuel. And though fuel oil remains a major heating source in New England, it still plays a role in many mid-Atlantic states, including PA, as well.

About 20% of Alaskans rely on it because it is an easy way to provide heat to its widely scattered towns and settlements. Due to its climate, the state has some of the highest heating costs in the nation.

*Hawaii is well known for having the highest electricity rates in the U.S. The islands each have their own grid and rely on diesel fuel to make electricity. However, the islands are in a tropical climate, which means the real heating usage is almost negligible. Some Hawaiian homes may have electric heat installed, but they may not actually use it regularly.

Ten States With Highest Average Bill

Accurately determining a state's average winter heating costs is far more involved than just adding up the four monthly fuel costs and dividing by four. After all, the most expensive fuel available in a state might only be used by 0.3% of its households. But, its high cost will distort the calculated average cost for what most consumers pay. In the case of heating oil, the distortion can be several hundred dollars.

In order to find realistic costs, we use a weighted average for each state. That is, the monthly cost of each heating fuel multiplied by the percentage of homes using it. We then used these amounts to create a weighted average monthly cost.

This scales back the impact of expensive fuels used in only a few homes in the average monthly cost for the state. As a result, consumers can see more realistic costs for heating systems that they're actually likely to use.

Ten States With Lowest Average Bill

Heating Costs Compared: 2024 vs 2026

Heating fuel costs have risen from 2024 but at different rates depending on the state.
Electricity + 9.93%
Natural Gas + 33.70%
Propane + 9.42%
Fuel Oil + 44.44%

Only four states saw their average heating fuel costs go down:
Nevada -17.33%
New Mexico -3.77%
Rhode Island -2.17%
Utah -3.81%

Ten States With Steepest Rising Heating Costs

Ten States With the Least Change in Heating Costs

Pennsylvania came in 4th for the highest percentage change in its weighted average cost for heating. The state saw its cost rise by 53.71% between 2024 and 2026. But while the state has been wrestling with tight energy supplies and rising electricity rates on the PJM grid, natural gas remains the main heating fuel. So, although electricity costs rose 17.85%, natural gas costs surged by 70.84% and fuel oil prices jumped up 51.86%. So, for PA consumers using natural gas heating, the coming El Niño may provide a much welcome discount on your winter bills.

Methodology

The RECS 2020 annual household site end-use energy consumption data is measured in mmBtus. Household consumption information for all four fuels was converted into each one's respective market unit (kWh, ccf, and gallons). Monthly costs for each fuel was then easily calculated from there. Energy prices came from the most recent EIA reports available for 2026 for each fuel.

In order to find the weighted average cost, we multiplied each heating fuel price by the percent of its use in a state (according to the 2020 RECS). We then added up the products to find the weighted average cost. This produced an average cost that reflects what most consumers in a state pay for heating while scaling back the high cost effect of fuels that only a few homes use.

References

Consumption & Efficiency, Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/index.php?view=state

Populations in All Age Groups Growing in the South, Driven by Outlying Counties in Metro Areas
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-pop-estimates.html

Heating Oil and Propane Update
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/

Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_dpgal_w.htm

Natural Gas Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/

Electric Power Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/index.php

Energy Insights: Residential Natural Gas Prices Expected to Drop
https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/energy-insights-residential-natural-gas-prices-expected-to-drop/

EIA expects gas, propane-heated US homes to spend less this winter
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eia-expects-mixed-picture-us-households-winter-fuel-costs-this-year-2026-10-06/

US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-use-beat-record-highs-2026-2027-ai-use-surges-eia-says-2026-10-06/